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updated 15:41, Wed January 02, 2008

Regal Entertainment Shares Waver, After Hitting a 52-Week Low Despite Analyst Optimism

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NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Regal Entertainment Group wavered Monday, after hitting a 52-week low earlier in the session despite an analyst's prediction that the year-end box office rally points to strong movie theater performance in 2008 and 2009.

Regal rebounded to gain 19 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $18.07, after dropping to a 52-week low of $17.58 earlier in the session. During the past 52 weeks, the stock has fallen from a high of $23.14 in June to a low of $17.70 on Dec. 14.

Soleil Securities analyst Marla S. Backer maintained a "Buy" rating on Regal shares due to the recent box office strength. In the final two weeks of the year, the year-to-date box office has gained 4.7 percent over 2006, led by Warner Bros.' "I am Legend," Walt Disney Co.'s "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" and "Alvin and the Chipmunks" from 20th Century Fox.

Analysts disagree, however, on whether the box office gain reflects increased movie attendance, or simply higher ticket prices.

Backer estimated that the increase represents a 2 percent to 3 percent attendance boost. BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeffrey Logsdon, however, said Monday that the increase indicates a "flattish" attendance level after factoring in higher ticket prices.

Movie theater stocks have suffered from a domestic box office slump this fall and an uncertain outlook for 2008 due, in part, to the Writers Guild strike.

Backer, however, is optimistic about the slate of new films in 2008. She cited new movie franchise installments like "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," Batman sequel "The Dark Knight" and "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" among the highlights.

She said several new titles, including "The Spiderwick Chronicles" and "Kung Fu Panda," may launch new franchises.

Backer also expects Regal, along with the rest of the industry, to benefit from an increase in three-dimensional content.

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